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Flood waters recede, winds calm, and sunshine returns to NJ

New Jersey will see significant improvements in the weather forecast on Monday and the coastal flooding threat will be much lower, although rough surf and high water remains in spots.

Here are your weather headlines for Monday, October 5, 2015…

Big Improvements

Tidal waters inundated streets in Beach Haven West, Manahawkin on Sunday. (Photo Bill Grzyb)

As expected, it was a dramatic weather weekend along the Jersey Shore as tidal waters invaded streets, waves pummeled beaches, and wind battered the entire area. Of course, our moderate to major flooding in New Jersey pales in comparison to the catastrophic flooding of South Carolina, where upwards of 2 feet of rain fell over the weekend. Still, unfortunately, death, damage, and even daring rescues occurred in New Jersey this weekend.

VIDEO: Coast Guard Rescue in Manasquan

Latest infrared satellite image shows clearer skies are ahead for New Jersey. (NOAA / Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center)

I am happy to say the weather and surf conditions have already improved dramatically. Much of the Garden State even broke into sunshine Sunday afternoon! Skies will clear throughout Monday, and all of New Jersey should be partly to mostly sunny by the end of the afternoon. While the models show a light sprinkle is possible along the coast today, it will be a mostly (if not totally) dry day.

Green is good, as all flood gauges in New Jersey were reporting near-normal water levels Monday morning. (NOAA / Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center)

The coastal flooding threat will be much lower on Monday, but not gone completely. A Coastal Flood Advisory (NOT a warning) remains in effect for Cape May and Cumberland counties until after the afternoon high tide. Water levels in the back bays and tributaries are still a bit high, as they have not had a chance to drain fully with the constant push of tidal water. Only minor flooding at the worst is expected today, around the times of high tide.

The ocean will remain angry today, as rough surf conditions continue. Beach erosion will continue, as 4 to 7 foot waves are expected along the Jersey Shore on Monday.

Meanwhile, winds are lightening up across the state as well. While we had gusts over 50 mph throughout the weekend along the Jersey Shore, today’s gusts should reach about 35 mph. Inland New Jersey should expect wind gusts to about 25 mph today – that’s breezy, but overall not too bad.

The Rest of the Week

By Tuesday, the wind-driven waves and coastal flooding will be but a memory, as conditions continue to improve. As the wind continues to lighten and skies feature just a few clouds, temperatures will be allowed to warm to the 70s across almost the entire state.

Wednesday looks even better, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the 70° to 77° range.

A weak front is expected to pass through New Jersey by late Wednesday, and that front looks rain-free at the moment. Somewhat cooler air will arrive on Thursday, but highs won’t fall too far below normal, in the upper 60s or so.

Our next chance for rain will come as another, stronger front sweeps through Friday into Saturday. For the moment, forecast rain totals are fairly light, about a half-inch. That front will potentially kick temperatures down another notch (60-ish) through the weekend.

MORE: Dan Zarrow's 5-Day Forecast

Hurricane Joaquin

Hey, remember that hurricane we were talking about last week? It’s still out there…

As of 5am on Monday 10/5, Joaquin is still a hurricane according to the National Hurricane Center.

Joaquin is a Category 1 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. The center of Joaquin passed within 100 miles of Bermuda yesterday. The storm continues to race off toward the northeast, further and further away from North America.

As Joaquin encounters cooler waters, it will continue to weaken. On it’s current track, the United Kingdom and western Europe may have to deal with the remnants of Joaquin as early as the upcoming weekend.

Dan Zarrow is the Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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